Dylematy wyboru strategii polityki pieniężnej Narodowego Banku Polskiego w drodze do Europejskiej Unii Monetarnej

Abstract

Integration with European institutions is the strategical aim of Poland. One of the partial tasks is the implementation of the common European currency - euro. The implementation will be possible after establishing low rate of inflation and low long-term interest rates. The purpose of this article is to analyse strategies of monetary policy which can be chosen by National Bank of Poland. First of the strategies is the controll of money supply. According to M. Friedman inflation can be tamed when supply of money grow slowly and steadily. It is true when demand for money is stable. Since the demand for money in Poland changes quite rapidly, the strategy is not suitable for NBP. Another possible strategy is introduction of fixed exchange-rate to foreign currency. In this case the rate of inflation will eventually be at a level observed abroad. This strategy does not allow the central bank to set interest rales independently. One of the form of fixed exchange-rate regime is currency board. In this case domestic currency should be fully covered by foreign reserves. The last described strategy is direct inflation targeting. The regime demands that central bank achieved the rate of inflation that had been previously set. The bank does not have to achieve any operational or indirect targets. The strategy is probably the most suitable for Poland and it was introduced by National Bank of Poland in 1999.