Poziom umieralności w projekcjach demograficznych GUS

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to assess assumptions about the future level of mortality in selected demographic projections produced by the GUS. At the outset the principles of construction have been presented taking into account projected population changes due to natural movement and migration. Then, the one of the methods used in prediction of mortality in the Polish population projections. The next section provides an analysis of assumptions about future levels of mortality in selected demographic projections. Retrospective summary of stuff in the mortality assumptions in selected projections of the CSO and to compare them with the facts shows how difficult to predict in the long term rate of change demographics.