Poziom umieralności w projekcjach demograficznych GUS
Streszczenie
The main objective of this paper is to assess assumptions about the future level of mortality in
selected demographic projections produced by the GUS. At the outset the principles of
construction have been presented taking into account projected population changes due to natural
movement and migration. Then, the one of the methods used in prediction of mortality in the
Polish population projections. The next section provides an analysis of assumptions about future
levels of mortality in selected demographic projections. Retrospective summary of stuff in the
mortality assumptions in selected projections of the CSO and to compare them with the facts
shows how difficult to predict in the long term rate of change demographics.
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