Zależność pomiędzy liczbą pracujących a PKB w Polsce w latach 1996-2004

Abstract

This paper examines the existence of common movement in the dynamics of production (represent by GDP) and the dynamics of employment in Poland in 1996-2004. The dynamics of production represent a business cycle. We want to see if the dynamics of employment in Poland in quarterly analyses is a pro-cyclical variable. To analyse this issue, we use simple empirical analyses and a Hodrick-Prescott Filter. The results indicate strong simultaneous comovement. We also use static statistical measures, particularly the correlation rate. These results do not confirm a strong correlation (it is weak). We also present a dynamical statistical measure: the cross-correlogram. This analyse show that there is a correlation but not before 13 quarter. However, we can say that the dynamics of employment and the dynamics of GDP move in the same course. The dynamics of employment is a pro-cyclical variable.