Robust Monetary Policy In A Linear Model Of The Polish Economy: Is The Uncertainty In The Model Responsible For The Interest Rate Smoothing Effect?
Streszczenie
Estimates of the generalised Taylor rule suggest that monetary policy in Poland can
be characterized as having reacted in a moderate fashion to output and in
ation gaps and are
strongly dependent on the lagged interest rate. Moreover, as for the majority of central banks the
short-term rate paths are smooth and only gradual changes can be observed. Optimal monetary
policy models in the linear-quadratic framework produce high variability of interest rates, and are
hence inconsistent with the data. One can obtain gradual behaviour of optimal monetary policy
by adding an interest rate smoothing term to the central bank objective. This heuristic procedure
has not much substantiation in the central bank's targets and raises the question: What are the
rational reasons for the gradual movements in the monetary policy instrument?
In this paper we determine optimal monetary polices in a VAR model of the Polish economy
with parameter uncertainty. By incorporating a proper structure of multiplicative uncertainty in
the linear-quadratic model of the Polish economy we nd a data consistent robust monetary policy
rule. Thus proving that parameter uncertainty can be the rationale for "timid" movements in the
short-interest rate dynamics. Finally, we show that there is trade o between parameter uncertainty
and the interest rate smoothing incentive.
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