Bilans płatniczy a zmiany międzynarodowej pozycji inwestycyjnej w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

Abstract

The paper presents an analysis of balance of payments and its influence on international investment position of Central and Eastern European countries in the period 1996-2006. During that period CEE countries experienced high current account deficits covered by rising foreign capital flows. That led to a sharp increase in foreign liabilities. However, a deterioration of net foreign investment position stemmed mainly from a rise in negative foreign direct investment position. What is more, main international liquidity ratios (such as reserve to net international position in portfolio and other investment or reserve to import outlays) did not deteriorate much and some (such as reserve to debt, export revenues to debt) even improved. That influenced positively credibility of CEE countries. Based on experience of selected Western countries the author claims that positive scenario for future developments in CEE balance of payments is more probable than a negative one. Nevertheless the pessimistic scenario should be kept in mind and thorough analysis of balance of payments stability continued.