Determining the state of bilateral relations using quantitative indicators: A case study of USRussia relations

Abstract

The aim of the research was to develop a tool for impartially evaluating the state of relations between two states over a specific period. It comprised several stages. Initially, a set of potential indicators of bilateral relations was prepared based on desk research. Following the initial selection based on data availability, these indicators were discussed with 32 practitioners of international relations (diplomats and foreign service officers from 22 countries) during semi-structured interviews. The aim of the interviews was to assign weights to the respective indicators, thus preparing for the quantitative segment of the study. Utilizing available datasets and self-generated data, a multidimensional comparative analysis was employed to generate the Bilateral Relations Index (BRI), which was then tested by the example of Russia-US relations between 1992 and 2022. The study revealed fluctuations and a gradual deterioration of US-Russia relations, aligning with qualitative observations from the recent history of the relations between the two states.