O znaczeniu prognoz dla prawdziwości teorii ekonomicznych, czyli efekty zewnętrzne, neoliberalizm i rozwój zrównoważony

Abstract

The trustworthy and correct economic and social forecasts have fundamental meaning and growing importance for the defining of the future tasks and responsibilities of governments and public sector; consequently, the significance of political and economical ideologies is diminishing. Methodical evaluation of well known scenarios of future, both optimistic and pessimistic, as presented (e.g.) by US National Intelligence Council in Global Trends 2015 - a Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts proved, that limits of our freedom will be established, in the near future, by environmental and social conditions, and not by our wishes, ideological dogmas or political wills of our leaders. Therefore, the evaluation and revision of the contemporary economic and political ideologies is a must; first of all - they have to accept realities of the future. It calls for a higher reliability and accuracy of forecasts and projections in all fields of our activities - in economy, in environmental estimates and in social sciences. In consequence, it demands also a progress in the theory of forecast.