O znaczeniu prognoz dla prawdziwości teorii ekonomicznych, czyli efekty zewnętrzne, neoliberalizm i rozwój zrównoważony
Streszczenie
The trustworthy and correct economic and social forecasts have fundamental meaning and
growing importance for the defining of the future tasks and responsibilities of governments
and public sector; consequently, the significance of political and economical ideologies is
diminishing.
Methodical evaluation of well known scenarios of future, both optimistic and pessimistic,
as presented (e.g.) by US National Intelligence Council in Global Trends 2015 - a Dialogue
About the Future With Nongovernment Experts proved, that limits of our freedom will be
established, in the near future, by environmental and social conditions, and not by our wishes,
ideological dogmas or political wills of our leaders.
Therefore, the evaluation and revision of the contemporary economic and political ideologies
is a must; first of all - they have to accept realities of the future. It calls for a higher
reliability and accuracy of forecasts and projections in all fields of our activities - in economy,
in environmental estimates and in social sciences. In consequence, it demands also a progress
in the theory of forecast.
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