Perspektywy przystąpienia Polski do Unii Ekonomicznej i Monetarnej - problemy konwergencji nominalnej i realnej

Abstract

Real convergence means, as it has been mentioned above, the process of approaching the average level economic development in the EMU countries by the countries aspiring to join the EMU. This economic development is measured by the level of GDP per capita, inflation rate, unemployment rate, synchronization of business cycles with the aggregated cycle for the EMU. Processes of real convergence should lead to lasting fulfillment of the nominal convergence criteria as specified in the Maastricht Treaty. The review of theoretical aspects of nominal and real convergence processes as well as the analysis of stylized facts concerning Polish economies allows to conclude that with time the Poland is better and better candidate for the monetary union. Poland have to stabilize their economies, and have to implement deep institutional and structural reforms, which, among others, include: creating institutional and structural conditions for the efficient functioning of market mechanism; a deep reform of public finance aiming at reducing the budget both on the side of revenues and expenditures, which would reduce radically the budget deficit and, in the long run, public debt; implementing mechanisms which in future would prevent increase in budget deficit and public debt; strengthening autonomy of the central bank as well as credibility of monetary policy aiming at price stabilization; modernization o f economy and pro-export changes in the production structure as well as intensification of intra-industry trade.