Zmiany na światowych rynkach paliwowo-energetycznych i ich wpływ na polskie obroty nośnikami energii

Abstract

The article discusses an attempt at estimation of the effects of changes in prices on the world fuels and energy markets on Poland's trade in primary energy carriers. In the first part of this article there are analyzed changes in the world prices of crude oil, natural gas, and hard coal. The analysis encompasses, first of all, changes in the level of the world prices and changes in relations of primary energy carriers. Next the author discussess changes in the Polish foreign trade in energy carriers in the seventies and the projected demand of Poland's economy for energy in the eighties according to a division into particular primary energy carriers: hard coal, crude oil, and natural gas In three variants. The first variant is based on extrapolation of previous development trends; the second variant - on analysis of changes in the Income elasticity of demand, and the third variant - on probable changes in the structure of demand for energy carrier (basing on the expertise elaborated by the Raw Materials Committee in the Polish Academy of Science in 1978). The third part of the article is devoted to an attempt at answering a question, what possibilities there are of obtaining the necessary hydrocarbonic fuels in the world markets for the Polish economy having in view, first of all, possibllites, of financing import of these fuels.