Wybrane metody prognozowania cen w handlu zagranicznym

Abstract

The article deals with some selected methods of international price forecasting. First, specific features of international price forecasting are formulated and need for a special methodology is emphasised. Next, some econometric modele of time series are discussed, foremost among them pure random walk process, moving - average process, autoregressive process, and finally a combined ARIMA model. Furthemore, selected simple models of binary choice are presented, like linear probabilistic model, LOGIT model, and PROBIT model. Particular usefulness of stochastic »odelling for price forecasting is demonstrated on the basis of general characteristics of international price mechanisms.