The Prospects of Polish Membership in the EMU on the Background of Global Recession 2007–2009

Abstract

Global recession of 2007–2009 has had a significant impact on the Eurozone functioning and has aroused much controversy over the monetary union membership of the new countries (including Poland) as well as the legitimacy of the monetary union formation by countries of different development levels and different degrees of fiscal discipline. Should Poland pursue full membership in the Economic and Monetary Union? If the answer is yes, then the question arises “when”? How should economy and the state get prepared for this move? There are no unambiguous answers to these questions. The aim of this paper is to outline possible answers and, first of all, to formulate problems for the discussion. The experience of the Eurozone countries from the period of 2007–2009 indicate that the economies which fulfilled the nominal convergence criteria in an “artificial” way, i.e. without thorough reforms in the area of public finance, markets – including labour market – have incurred high costs of the recession in the situation when they have neither their own currency not monetary policy. Poland’s full membership in the Economic and Monetary Union should be preceded by thorough reforms consisting in market (including the labour market) deregulation and liberalisation and the public finance reform. In the case of public finance the changes which are necessary refer to both reducing expenditure and taxes. The change in the public expenditure structure is also indispensable.