Estimating urban growth on Mersin, Tarsus and Adana corridor in Türki̇ye by using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain

Abstract

In many developing countries, urban growth is often unplanned and haphazard, leading to significant threats to the sustainable use of urban land. This study predicts future urban expansion patterns in the Mersin, Tarsus and Adana corridor in Türkiye using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain models. Analysing Landsat satellite images from 1989 to 2019, we simulated land use changes for 2019, 2031, and 2049. The results indicate a projected increase in urban areas from 3.8% in 2019 to 7.4% by 2049, with significant expansion onto fertile agricultural areas. This unregulated growth highlights the urgent need for a well-planned governance approach that balances economic, social, and environmental factors to ensure resilient and sustainable urban development.