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The Impact of COVID–19 on the Level and Structure of Employment in European Union Countries

dc.contributor.authorMarkowska, Małgorzata
dc.contributor.authorSokołowski, Andrzej
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-31T14:33:33Z
dc.date.available2023-03-31T14:33:33Z
dc.date.issued2023-03-29
dc.identifier.issn1508-2008
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11089/46508
dc.description.abstractThe paper proposes methods that can be used to evaluate the changes in one year of any measurable phenomenon based on how it performed in previous years. The following economic sections are considered: Agriculture, forestry and fishing/Industry/Construction/Wholesale and retail trade, transport, accommodation and food services/Information and communication/Financial and insurance activities/Real estate activities/Professional, scientific and technical activities, including administrative and support services/Public administration, defence, education, human health and social work/Arts, entertainment and recreation; other service activities; activities of household and extra‑territorial organisations and bodies. The paper proposes a new method – called The Triple 2 Rule – to identify changes in employment time series. Trends and autoregressive models are estimated for the period 2008–2019, and 2020 forecasts are calculated. The difference between the forecasted and observed values for 2020 is treated as a measure of the impact of COVID–19. Dynamic cluster analysis based on 2008–2020 data is the second approach. The characteristics and changes in the composition of dynamic clusters give a picture of the impact of 2020. These changes can be considered to have been caused – at least partially – by the COVID–19 pandemic.en
dc.description.abstractCelem artykułu jest zaproponowanie i zastosowanie metod, które można wykorzystać do oceny zmian w ciągu jednego roku dowolnego mierzalnego zjawiska z punktu widzenia tego, w jaki sposób podążają one za schematem procesu obserwowanego w latach poprzednich. Badania przeprowadzono dla zatrudnienia ogółem oraz zatrudnienia w następujących sekcjach: Rolnictwo, leśnictwo i rybołówstwo; Przemysł; Budownictwo; Handel hurtowy i detaliczny, transport, usługi hotelowe i restauracyjne; Informacja i komunikacja; Działalność finansowa i ubezpieczeniowa; Nieruchomości; Działalność naukowa, fachowa i techniczna, usługi administracyjne i pomocnicze; Administracja publiczna, obrona narodowa, edukacja, ochrona zdrowia i opieka społeczna; Sztuka, rozrywka, rekreacja, inne usługi, działalność gospodarstw domowych i organizacji pozarządowych. Zastosowano dwa podejścia metodologiczne. W ramach pierwszego oszacowano modele trendu i autoregresji na podstawie danych z lat 2008–2019 oraz wyznaczono prognozy na rok 2020. Następnie porównano je z wartościami rzeczywistymi w roku 2020. Zaproponowano tzw. Regułę trzech dwójek. Drugie podejście to dynamiczna analiza skupień. Zmiany w składzie wyodrębnionych grup pozwoliły na ocenę wpływu pandemii COVID 19 na stopy zatrudnienia w roku 2020.pl
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiegopl
dc.relation.ispartofseriesComparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe;1pl
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
dc.subjectemploymenten
dc.subjectCOVID–19en
dc.subjectEuropean Union countriesen
dc.subjectdynamic cluster analysisen
dc.subjecttriple 2 ruleen
dc.subjectzatrudnieniepl
dc.subjectCOVID–19pl
dc.subjectpaństwa Unii Europejskiejpl
dc.subjectdynamiczna analiza skupieńpl
dc.subjectreguła trzech dwójekpl
dc.titleThe Impact of COVID–19 on the Level and Structure of Employment in European Union Countriesen
dc.title.alternativeWpływ pandemii COVID–19 na poziom i strukturę zatrudnienia w krajach Unii Europejskiejpl
dc.typeArticle
dc.page.number89-109
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationMarkowska, Małgorzata - Associate Professor, Wrocław University of Economics and Business, Wrocław, Polanden
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationSokołowski, Andrzej - Professor, Collegium Humanum – Warsaw Management University, Polanden
dc.identifier.eissn2082-6737
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dc.contributor.authorEmailMarkowska, Małgorzata - malgorzata.markowska@ue.wroc.pl
dc.contributor.authorEmailSokołowski, Andrzej - andrzej.sokolowski@humanum.pl
dc.identifier.doi10.18778/1508-2008.26.05
dc.relation.volume26


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