Demand and Supply Shock Symmetry across Polish Voievodships

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the symmetry of demand and supply shocks affecting Polish voievodships and to assess the risk of asymmetric shocks in the future. The study employs the SVAR-based Blanchard and Quah (1989) decomposition as modified by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1992) and utilizes a new method of estimating quarterly GDP by voievodships. The results point to a relatively high symmetry of shocks and a rather low risk of their occurrence. Shock asymmetry does not appear to be strongly related to differences in production structures, which is claimed in most theoretical approaches, including the Optimum Currency Areas Theory.