Trwałość konwergencji nominalnej w Polsce z perspektywy uczestnictwa w Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej

Abstract

This article examines sustainability of nominal convergence in Poland and the ability of the Polish economy to operate in the EMU. Particular attention is paid to the determination of the reference value for price stability and the stability of long-term interest rates. The article proposes several alternatives for them. The analysis shows that Poland has great difficulty in meeting the criterion for price stability and budget deficit. The article also analyzes the sustainability of convergence in the euro area countries during the economic crisis. The assessment of stability of convergence criteria in the euro area may have a significant implications for countries with a derogation. Emphasis is put to sustainability of public finance. The analysis shows that if Poland manages to stabilize inflation in terms of nominal convergence criteria, it may prove to become a prospective candidate for participation in the euro area.