Prognoza gospodarstw domowych kierowanych przez osoby w starszym wieku

Abstract

The paper is an attempt at preparing a forecast concerning households in Poland run by elderly people of 60 and more years of age. The estimates are based on the data provided by the National Census of 1970 and they encompass future changes: - in the number of households run by elderly people, - in the structure of these households according to the number of persons. The transformations in this area are presented in the town-country cross-section for the years 1980-2000 with a specialattention focusses on three time periods: 1980, 1990, 2000. The estimate of the number and structure of households was made in two variants differing in their assumptions are regards the future level of coefficients off requency in establishing these households: the first one - taking into account the fixed coefficients till 2000 estimated on the basis of the data provided by, the National Census of 1970; the-second one - assuming fo r growth in the level of coefficients. The results of the forecast outline the future trends of changes in the number and structure of households run by the population of 60 and more years of age.