The structural model of the Lodz region - scenarios of regional development

Abstract

. Prospects for regional development are the subject of wide interest to the authorities and the academic community. This interest is reflected LORIS VISION project, including the regional technology foresight. The part of the project was to built a macroeconometric structural model of the Lodź region "Loris", which to- gether with the adapted model of the Polish economy W8-LW provides a tool in economic analysis. In this paper the structure of the model and the results of eco- nomic analysis for the Lodz region resulting from the assumptions and solutions of the models are prezented. An attempt to quantify the impact of changing external conditions and remedial actions for the development of the Polish economy and the region. Accepted assumptions resulted directly from the earlier rounds of Delphi surveys conducted within the project Loris Vision. It has been shown that a change in assumptions and taking action locally obsen/ed so far go beyond the framework may lead to changes in growth rates and achieve different levels of development of the region, increased its share in domestic production or growth of population wealth.