Hybrydowość i asymetryczność przyszłych konfliktów w cyberprzestrzeni

Abstract

This doctoral dissertation examines how the digital revolution has transformed contemporary conflict, with a focus on the impact of cyberspace on modern asymmetric, irregular and hybrid warfare. Rather than operating as an independent domain, cyberspace permeates all areas of conflict, exploiting characteristics such as low barriers to entry, difficulty in establishing attribution, and an unbounded geography to reduce the threshold for hostilities and empower non-state actors. Using systems analysis, comparative-historical methods and interpretative frameworks, the study critically evaluates Western, Russian and Chinese doctrinal perspectives alongside empirical case studies and policy documents. The findings demonstrate that, although asymmetry and hybridity are historically persistent, digitalisation has radically altered their scale and tempo, blurring the line between peace and war. Although states attempt to partially de-digitalise critical infrastructure for protection, complete isolation is unfeasible due to deep structural dependencies. Ultimately, the dissertation proposes adopting a paradigm of permanent uncertainty and suggests using a probabilistic risk-assessment model to inform strategic decision-making in complex environments where cyberspace continuously intensifies, exacerbates, and escalates traditional kinetic conflict.