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A tripolar model of gas price formation in Germany. Does the shale revolution in the US matter?

dc.contributor.authorWelfe, Aleksander
dc.contributor.authorMoenke, Anna
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-11T11:12:29Z
dc.date.available2023-12-11T11:12:29Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.identifier.issn2366-049X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11089/48731
dc.description.abstractPresented analysis of gas price formation mechanism in Germany was prompted by changes brought about by technological advancements and the liberalization and harmonization of natural gas markets in the European Union after the year 2000. Because the data used in the study is generated by nonstationary stochastic processes, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model was applied as the most appropriate. The analysis pointed out that the price of natural gas, oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate influence each other in the long run and thus should be modelled together. Gas price in Germany is driven by both fundamental and financial factors, and so it rises with economic expansion, oil price increases, and the depreciation of the USD. It also reacts to changes in short-term interest rates and the volume of gas production in the US, which confirms that the shale revolution in this country has been consequential for gas prices in Europe, like any other supply shock would have been.pl_PL
dc.description.sponsorshipNarodowe Centrum Nauki: OPUS 21: DEC—2021/41/B/HS4/04317
dc.language.isoenpl_PL
dc.publisherJahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik Journal of Economics and Statisticspl_PL
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJournal of Economics and Statistics, No. 4
dc.rightsUznanie autorstwa 4.0 Międzynarodowe
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectgas price determinantspl_PL
dc.subjectGerman natural gas marketpl_PL
dc.subjectshale revolutionpl_PL
dc.subjectCVAR modelpl_PL
dc.titleA tripolar model of gas price formation in Germany. Does the shale revolution in the US matter?pl_PL
dc.typeArticlepl_PL
dc.page.number501-520pl_PL
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationUniwersytet Łódzkipl_PL
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationSzkoła Główna Handlowapl_PL
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dc.contributor.authorEmailaleksander.welfe@uni.lodz.plpl_PL
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0002
dc.relation.volume242pl_PL
dc.disciplineekonomia i finansepl_PL


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