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dc.contributor.authorBoiko, Vitalii
dc.contributor.authorMulska, Olha
dc.contributor.authorBaranyak, Ihor
dc.contributor.authorLevytska, Olha
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-01T13:33:55Z
dc.date.available2021-04-01T13:33:55Z
dc.date.issued2021-03-30
dc.identifier.issn1508-2008
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11089/34923
dc.description.abstractBased on the multiple regression model and scenario approach to forecasting, the article estimates the Ukrainian migration aspirations towards Germany (the scale of migration, the economic activity of migrants, and their economic benefits). It is argued that major transformations in the gender-age structure of the German population may cause a demographic crisis and labour market imbalances. Our projections indicate the growing role of foreign human resources in the German economy. When modeling the scale of emigration from Ukraine, an integrated approach is applied, considering not only trends of pull-push factors but also special aspects of the German migration policy and the outflow of 8–10 million Ukrainian migrant workers. Given the poor statistical data on the scale of labour emigration needed for constructing reliable econometric models, the use of expert forecasting method remains the most optimal technique for assessing potential migration flows and migration systems.en
dc.description.abstractNa podstawie modelu regresji wielokrotnej i podejścia scenariuszowego do prognoz oszacowano ukraińskie aspiracje migracyjne do Niemiec (skala migracji, aktywność gospodarcza migrantów i ich korzyści ekonomiczne). Argumentuje się, że poważne zmiany w strukturze wiekowej i płci ludności lokalnej mogą powodować kryzys demograficzny i utratę równowagi na rynku pracy. Przedstawione prognozy wskazują na rosnącą rolę zagranicznych zasobów ludzkich w niemieckiej gospodarce. Modelując skalę emigracji z Ukrainy zastosowano podejście zintegrowane, uwzględniające nie tylko trendy czynników przyciągających, ale także szczególne aspekty niemieckiej polityki migracyjnej i odpływ 8–10 milionów ukraińskich pracowników. Biorąc pod uwagę brak wystarczających danych statystycznych dotyczących skali emigracji zarobkowej, potrzebnych do budowy wiarygodnych modeli ekonometrycznych, uzasadniono, że zastosowanie eksperckiej metody prognozowania pozostaje optymalną techniką oceny potencjalnych przepływów migracyjnych i systemów migracji.pl
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiegopl
dc.relation.ispartofseriesComparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe;1pl
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
dc.subjectmigration aspirationsen
dc.subjectsocio-economic factorsen
dc.subjectforecasten
dc.subjectmigration policyen
dc.subjectUkraineen
dc.subjectGermanyen
dc.subjectaspiracje migracyjnepl
dc.subjectczynniki społeczno-ekonomicznepl
dc.subjectprognozapl
dc.subjectpolityka migracyjnapl
dc.subjectUkrainapl
dc.subjectNiemcypl
dc.titleUkrainian Migration Aspirations towards Germany: Analysis and Development Scenariosen
dc.title.alternativeAspiracje migracyjne Ukraińców do Niemiec: analiza i scenariusze rozwojupl
dc.typeArticle
dc.page.number65-84
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationBoiko, Vitalii - Dr, Professor, Department of Management of Organizations, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraineen
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationMulska, Olha - Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow, Department of Social and Humanitarian Development of Regions, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraineen
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationBaranyak, Ihor - Junior Research Fellow, Department of Social and Humanitarian Development of Regions, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraineen
dc.contributor.authorAffiliationLevytska, Olha - Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow, Department of Social and Humanitarian Development of Regions, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraineen
dc.identifier.eissn2082-6737
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dc.contributor.authorEmailBoiko, Vitalii - vitalii.v.boiko@lpnu.ua
dc.contributor.authorEmailMulska, Olha - oliochka.mulska@gmail.com
dc.contributor.authorEmailBaranyak, Ihor - ihorbaranyak@gmail.com
dc.contributor.authorEmailLevytska, Olha - o.levytska@gmail.com
dc.identifier.doi10.18778/1508-2008.24.04
dc.relation.volume24


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