| dc.description.abstract | Forecasts predicting the reunification of the Korean Peninsula were
common throughout the 1990s. Since then, enthusiasm for such predictions has dampened,
and though the fundamental assumption of reunification remains, predictions of
when and how this will happen have been more restrained. Reunification leaves two
unresolved yet interdependent issues: reunification itself, which is the urgent challenge;
and the strategic issues that emerge from reunification, which have the potential to
fundamentally transform strategic relations in the region of Northeast Asia. Within
this context, this paper examines the prospects of Korean reunification against the
background of the interstate relations. Initially, it will establish the framework from
which such scenarios will emerge: the historical background of the division, the extreme
differences between the two states, the role played by the North Korean nuclear threats
and the impact of the September 11, 2001 on the interstate relations, and finally general
situation and relations in the East Asian region. Then, three possible scenarios of the
unification will be developed: through peaceful integration, through the fall of North
Korea or through a war. Summing up, even the death of Kim Jong Il will not bring
change in the domestic and foreign policy of North Korea which is going to continue an
aggressive approach toward the South. In the short-term reunification is definitely not in
the interest of the current ROK administration, and the South has no intention of
encouraging it. None of the considered scenarios envisions early reunification, and it
seems that for the future, the status quo on the Korean Peninsula will remain. | pl_PL |
